Earthquake Overdue
Today happens to be the 140th anniversary of the last major earthquake on the Hayward Fault in California on October 21st, 1868. And they occur, on average, every 140 years. The photo illustrates a crack in the California Memorial Stadium, directly over the fault, which slips at a rate of several millimetres per year and half a metre since the last earthquake.
The Hayward Fault
Less well-known than the San Andreas Fault slightly to the west, the Hayward Fault is now referred to as America's 'most dangerous fault'. This is because of the probability that it will cause a major earthquake in the next 30 years together with the fact that it runs through an urban area populated by an estimated one million people. Given that the Californian economy is the seventh largest in the world, the economic consequences of such an event might well be on par with those of the 2008 credit crunch. And of course there would be direct human consequences, since many (if not most) of the buildings in the affected zone would become inhabitable even if they didn't collapse, and water supplies to the whole of California would be under threat.
The Hayward Fault
Californians are naturally aware of the risks posed by this and the other faults in the region. This is why there has been substantial investment in efforts to 'retrofit' or replace large structures likely to be the most vulnerable, including bridges and fuel pipelines. But it seems most people can do little more than shrug their shoulders and hope for the best, as the financial and social implications of doing all that is required are simply too great.
It's a percentage game, like our attitude to the certainty that the earth will one day – but probably not just yet – be made uninhabitable by something big and fast from outer space: a wandering black hole, a meteorite, or more likely: an asteroid. Which is why 'leading scientists' have told the United Nations we need an Asteroid Shield very urgenty. Otherwise we could be wiped out, just like the dinosaurs. The plan is to pinpoint which of the 500,000 asteroids in orbit around the sun pose a threat, then to launch pre-emptive space missions to deflect or destroy the ones with a one in 10 (or even a one in 100) risk of hitting our planet.
